We’ve had quite the streak again of mild, quiet weather.  Now that’s about to change.  A good sized storm system is going to be moving into the Midwest over the next couple of days and some locations could get in on some heavy snow.  So let’s look at the time line.

Thursday will bring us our last really mild day.  In fact, clouds will be on the increase as the day goes along.  By Friday that could give us a chance of a light rain and snow combination.

The low pressure that you see in Future Track above will move to the east and continue to give Siouxland chances of snow Friday night and Saturday.  The accumulations could start adding up, especailly in southern Siouxland where over 6 inches of snow could be possible.  Look at the bullseye of moisture on the map below expected for Friday night and Saturday.

There’s still plenty of time for this to play out so we’ll keep you updated.  Just start making plans for some possible travel troubles come Saturday.

Ron Demers

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Get ready for wintry changes arriving once again.  An Arctic cold front has been working through Siouxland late Wednesday and this is going to drive temperatures down to around 0° tonight with wind chills bottoming out anywhere from -10° to -30° with the coldest temps in northeastern Siouxland where they’ll be under a Wind Chill Advisory through noon Thursday.

The winds will calm down during the day on Thursday, but even though our wind chills will improve as Thursday goes along, our highs will top out only in the single digits so it’s going to be cold all the way around.

Then our focus turns to snow.  We’ll have one chance tonight with under an inch of accumulation.  Then a better chance comes our way Thursday night into Friday morning when northeastern Siouxland could see from 3 to 5 inches of snow.  That’s where a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued from Thursday night into Friday.

At this point, we could be looking at 1 to 3 inches of snow in Sioux City but the path of this snow could still change so we’ll keep an eye on it.  A little warming will occur from Saturday into Sunday, but for the next three days, a real chill will be felt by all of us.  Bundle up!

Ron Demers

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In a winter that hasn’t given us a lot of snow, it’s easier to get excited about lighter events that move in.  That will be the case tonight as some light snow is going to develop and give most of us a chance at some minor accumulations.  The snow will first start in western Siouxland, probably after 9 pm.  It won’t arrive in Sioux City until well after midnight.  The best chances for all of us then occur while we’re sleeping with maybe some light snow still leftover early in the morning.

That snow will quickly move off to the east with decreasing clouds for the rest of our Tuesday.  Most of us will end up with around an inch with maybe a little more in western Siouxland.

We will be left with a very cold day on Tuesday with highs only in the teens.  Wednesday warms up a bit before Thursday gets cold again.

While it won’t be much snow, be careful Tuesday morning as we haven’t been tested as much this winter as usual and it could be a bit slick.

Ron Demers

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I’m not trying to sound like a broken record, but we did have broken records yet again today.  After a record 58 degrees yesterday, today we hit 68 in Sioux City breaking the old record of 61 set in 1956.  And we certainly weren’t the only location hitting record highs.

You don’t get this kind of warmth if you have snow cover, and we certainly don’t have that.  In fact, moisture in general has been hard to come by as of late.  Here are a few of the statistics showing how dry we’ve been as of late.

We still don’t have much of a chance of seeing any precipitation in our 7-day forecast.  Temperatures are still expected to stay well above average until the middle of next week when some colder air may finally move in.  So whether you like it or not, get out and enjoy this mild streak while we have it because there’s still plenty of time for winter to set in for Siouxland.

Ron Demers

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I’ve heard it all from “I hate snow” to “is it going to be a snowy Christmas, please say yes!” These are comments my students have made as well.

This map shows the highest probability of having a white Christmas (snow cover) being over Northern Minnesota and much of Canada where the probability is over 90%. I always consider Sioux City to be on the borderline of the snowbelt-the area of the U.S. that normally experiences prolonged period of snow cover. From my experience here it totally depends on the year and weather pattern. Some years we get snow but episodes of Pacific air sweep in from the west and melt away the snow. In other years when Arctic air seems to stay entrenched, the snow lasts for a solid couple of months before it melts. Whether you like snow or not, at this point there will be no opportunities for new snow through Wednesday of the coming week. I will say that a few models have been hinting at a few minor disturbances that could bring a shot of light snow by the end of the coming travel week and into Christmas weekend. The atmosphere will be cold enough to support snow by then, but right now the models are inconclusive. Of course we’ll be sure to let you snow lovers know if any decent chances pop up to save the chance of getting a festive, white Christmas.
Dave Winslow

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We’ve seen about 3″ of snow so far this winter and that was mainly from one system. It was 44° yesterday so snow is long gone except for a few ugly piles here and there. Is there any snow potential for Christmas? Of course there is some, the winter solstice is coming next week. But the weather pattern says otherwise as we warm into the 40s and 50s this weekend. The next big storm will probably stay to our south on Monday-Tuesday. It will probably get a bit warmer after this system by midweek. Now, Christmas weekend is beyond forecast confidence but some models have been hinting that there could be a chance of cooler weather that would support snow if we can get some precipitation. Bottom line-it’s too early to tell, but I would say the odds are against it at the moment if I had to bet the farm.
Some stats for you (Sioux City)
Snow depth in 2010 on Christmas Day 5″
depth in 2009 12″
depth in 2008 12″+
depth in 2007 2″
depth in 2006 0″ (NONE)

So it’s been 5 years since our last snowless Christmas. Stay tuned to News Four to track any snow potential for the upcoming travel week and weekend.
Meteorologist Dave Winslow

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I had the chance to talk to the 5th grade class at Mater Dei in Sioux City today and we had a great time.  As one of the teachers mentioned to me, the kids may have kept me there with questions all day and that’s a great sign!

Thanks 5th graders and keep studying hard!!

Ron Demers

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We know it’s been dry but here’s some of data to back that statement up.  I was wondering how long it has taken us to accumulate our last inch of rain.  Well, we’re now coming up on 3 1/2 months!

You can also see in the above graphic just how dry some of the individual months have been with Septmber being the 3rd driest September on record here in Sioux City.  Both October and November are the 9th driest on record.

Below is a look at our departures from normal where our yearly rain is now below average by 3.5″.

There’s still not large amounts of moisture in our forecast although a system could provide us some light snow chances by Saturday.  At this point, the heaviest snow is expected to stay south of Siouxland but it will be close enough that a shift could change all that so it’ll be worth watching.

Ron Demers

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With this being one of the busiest travel days of the year, I figured a lot of people may not get to see our broadcast and may be doing some web surfing instead.  Whatever the case, I thought I’d give you a forecast on my blog just so you have the latest of what’s going on heading into our holiday.

Here are the weather headlines that I’m talking about…

That breeze that blows in from the south on Thanksgiving will give us the chance of getting into the low 60s for highs.  Friday will be just a bit cooler but still a decent day.  Then a cold front comes in Friday night that will give us a slight chance of a rain shower along with windy conditions that will continue right into Saturday as well bringing in much cooler weather with highs around 40° for the weekend.

For the fun of it, here’s a look at some of the extremes that we have seen here in Sioux City on past Thanksgiving Day.

I hope everyone has a great and very safe Thanksgiving!

Ron Demers

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Not much has changed in regards to our weekend system that could produce some snow across the Dakotas and Minnesota.  It does still look like the accumulating snow will mostly stay north of the KTIV viewing area.  Some of the heavier amounts could take place in central South Dakota where a little more than 6 inches could end up falling.

In the graphic below you can see the purple counties that are in a Winter Storm Warning across much of South Dakota with the blue counties showing area that are in a Winter Weather Advisory for 2 to 5 inches of snow.

So Siouxland will be looking at the chance of a light rain and snow combination, but nothing too heavy.  The precipitation should be moving to the east by Saturday evening leaving us with a cold Sunday with highs in the 30s.  But we will see a nice warming trend still for next week.

If you’re traveling north, be careful.  Otherwise, have a great weekend!

Ron Demers

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