We’ve shared with you the thoughts about the potential for a mild winter as an El Nino pattern continues into the coldest time of year, and the Climate Prediction Center’s latest one and three month outlook is still encouraging if you are hoping for this. This was just put out this morning:

The theory behind this forecast is that El Nino will continue at about a moderate strength, influencing our weather pattern and jetstream in a way that keeps us overall warmer than average. The usual Arctic outbreaks and snowstorms can’t be ruled out, but it may be a continuation of what we’ve seen this November: overall, above average temps.

Dave Winslow

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People always have different views on snow and whether they want any at a particular time during the winter, but we have just missed out on some snow and I have no problems with that.  An impressive, slow moving, storm to our south threw a lot of snow into southeastern Nebraska leaving places like Endicott, NE, with 10 inches.  Here are some of the snow totals reported from the National Weather Service out of Omaha:

The same low pressure area that caused the snow is actually going to retrograde, or move from east to west, and cloud our skies back up Wednesday and give us a slight chance of a light shower or a little drizzle.

The clouds should start to thin again by late Thursday leaving us with more sunshine and mild temperatures for Friday and Saturday.  It’s been a very mild November so enjoy it as it continues for the next few days.

Ron Demers

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If you think back to October, the storm track was right over Siouxland as rain and snow fell on nearly a daily basis. The latest beefy storm is ravaging Southern Nebraska, Iowa, and Northern Kansas with wet accumulating snow. Here’s our future track forecast for tonight at 7 PM:

Notice the winter weather advisories in blue, and winter storm warnings in purple:

This cut-off low may meander a bit north by Wednesday leading to a small rain chance, but we are going to be lucking out with this one. Our next bigger storm looks to move in from the Rockies by Sunday with rain. We’ll continue to track these systems and let you know if anything changes.

Dave Winslow

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All good things must come to an end, especially in November! If we hit 60° or better today, it will be 8 days in a row with highs in the 60s or better! That’s not typical, but boy has it been nice. Our computer models have been waffling for a potential storm for next week, one day it keeps the storm south, the next it brings the rain and possibly snow north into our area. Today, it looks like we may get some rain and cool weather, maybe even snow from Monday into Tuesday. I caution that the forecast confidence is extremely low for next week though. You’ll probably see daily adjustments to the timing and details as we work into the next couple of days. Here’s the GFS model’s depiction of the upper level low by Monday at 7:15 pm:

This model would put us in the zone of rain and snow, but it does appear that if snow does indeed develop, some of it will melt as temperatures should be above freezing for the most part.

Dave Winslow

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In this corner you have the month that’s supposed to be warmer with temperatures just cool enough to turn our leaves to those beautiful yellows and oranges.  And in the other corner, the month that’s supposed to get cold and give us better chances of snow as we transition more and more into winter.  While we normally would know which corner is supposed to be October, this year has been just the opposite.  November has thus far been warmer and drier than October for us here in Sioux City as the graphic below verifies:

With highs expected to be close to 60° over the next couple of days, the stats above may change a bit still in favor of November.  There is a chance of some rain by late this week so stay tuned as the ups and downs of the fall months will continue to be followed here at News Channel 4.

Ron Demers

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We saw the 70s for the first time in over a month as Ron talked about in the previous post, and it’s wasn’t just a few days of nice weather but a long stretch we’re continuing. Here’s a look at the stats for the last few days:

This awesome stretch of weather should keep on going into your second week of November, and probably your third week as well. We’re tracking another upper level ridge of high pressure emerging out of the Desert Southwest this time around:

You know it’s going to get cold and snowy at some point, so enjoy!

Dave Winslow

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You know, we only hit the 70° mark once in all of October, so to have already done in November feels pretty darn good.  We hit 71° today in Sioux City and here’s a look at how long it’s been since we’ve gotten to enjoy this type of warmth.

The greatest warmth was out west where communities like O’Neill, Creighton, Neligh, and Yankton made it into the 80s.  In fact, the 80° that Yankton saw today was a new record high eclipsing their old record of 78 set in 1987.

And while it wasn’t as warm, it certainly wasn’t bad across northwest Iowa either.

It does look like we’ll keep it in the 60s over the weekend with it getting slightly cooler for next week.

Ron Demers

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If you woke up early Thursday morning and stepped outside, warmth wasn’t the word coming to mind.  In fact, our low Thursday morning was 26°.  But by the afternoon we hit a high of 66° and there was even more warmth to our west.

Thursday's HIghs

Now our eyes will be on a warm front to our west.  This front will work its way across the region and warm more of the Midwest very nicely.  The front by Friday evening will be to the east of Siouxland.

The warmest temperatures will probably be in western Siouxland where there will be fewer morning clouds and the warm front will move through earlier.  The rest of us, while maybe a bit cooler, will still be way above average with all of our highs topping out in the 60s and 70s.  Mild weather sticks with us through the weekend with some cooling by next week.  Enjoy our nice November weather!!

Ron Demers

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The ingredients look to be coming together for a near record Friday and unseasonably warm weekend. It’s only appropriate to talk about November “heat.” I’ve been lucky enough in my 5 yrs at KTIV to experience several 80° days in November, but it takes perfect ingredients that look very similar to what we’ll experience on Friday. Some stats over the last 5 years:

We’ll be tracking the setup for this weekend very carefully as we’ll be near record highs.

Dave Winslow

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After the October we survived, it’s time for retribution! Often times very cold and wet weather can be followed by a reverse at some point…and ours is here for the first week and a half of November. Yes, if you watched my forecasts this morning for the week, I have put in some astounding numbers for the coming weekend as we flirt with record highs.

The airmass flooding the plains will be of Pacific origin as it goes over the Rockies, sinks, compresses, and warms even more. Here’s a snapshot of one of our computer models showing an upper level ridge right now:

Notice it’s still over the Central and Northern Plains on Sunday too:

Confidence at this point is increasing, and if our computer models keep showing this trend it’s going to be almost a done deal.

Dave Winslow

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