Our storm system continues to move in and I haven’t changed the forecast a lot since I last updated the blog on Tuesday.  What has changed is that the Winter Storm Watch that was in effect for much of the area has now been updated to a Winter Weather Advisory for central and northern Siouxland with a Winter Storm Warning (for slightly heavier snow) in southern and far eastern Siouxland.  Most of the advisories and warnings run from noon Thursday until noon Friday.

The heaviest of accumulations are probably going to be taking place in southern Siouxland with as much as 6 to 10 inches possible.  The National Weather Service decided to go with a Winter Weather Advisory for Sioux City because they don’t think we’ll reach the criteria for a warning of 6 inches of snow in 12 hours or 8 inches of snow in 24 hours.  Most of central and northern Siouxland will probably end up with 4 to 8 inches with close to 6 inches probable in Sioux City, lesser amounts will fall to the north and more to the south.

Look for the majority of snow to fall after 5 pm Thursday into the overnight hours.  We could have some light snow lingering into Friday morning but the heaviest of snow should be east of here by then.

The wind won’t be overly gusty with this system, but it will be steady between 15 and 20 miles per hour.  So this will enough to help bring down visibilities and it’s just another factor we all need to keep in mind.

For anyone with questions about the storm, KTIV will be hosting a live weather chat Thursday afternoon beginning at 2 pm.  Meteorologist Ross Caniglia will be online answering your questions while I focus on the forecast and evening weathercast.  You will be able to go to ktiv.com and click on “Live Weather Chat.”  We hope to see you (or chat you up) then.

Ron Demers

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We’ve been watching this storm system since last week and now it’s getting close.  A Winter Storm Warning has been posted for southwestern Siouxland, including Norfolk and O’Neill from Thursday morning until Friday morning.  This is probably where the heaviest of snow will fall.

The rest of Siouxland, including Sioux City, is still under a Winter Storm Watch from early Thursday until early Friday.  This will probably become a Winter Storm Warning or a Winter Weather Advisory on Wednesday depending upon what the latest models show.

I think the majority of Siouxland in the Winter Storm Watch could see 4-6 inches but pockets of 7 and 8 inches can’t be ruled out, especially the farther south you go.  Southwestern Siouxland could see the worst of it with 6 to 10 inches possible.

The wind will be steady with this system, mostly between 15 and 25 miles per hour.  So visibilities under half a mile are certainly going to be possible.  So be careful on Thursday as we will be seeing deteriorating weather conditions.

Don’t forget you can download our Storm Team 4 Weather App for Android, iPhone, and iPad.  This is a way to track this weather system as it moves in.

Ron Demers

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As dry as we have been lately, it’s great to see moisture finally on the way.  This time of year, it’s more likely that you’re going to get snow but that is not the case for most of us with this storm.  Temperatures are going to stay warm enough that the moisture will fall as rain tonight as you can see by the 2 am snapshot from Storm Team 4 Future Track.

The rain will come down steady for a while and could give portions of Siouxland over half an inch of rain with the heaviest amounts to the southeast of Sioux City.

As our temperatures cool late Saturday, we could see a bit of freezing drizzle or flurries in the area so just be careful of the possibility of some slick spots later Saturday.

Ron Demers

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Clear skies tonight may help you star gazers to see a few meteors flying through our sky.

The peak of the Leonid Meteor Shower will happen in the pre-dawn hours of Saturday.  At its peak, you might be able to see between 10 and 15 meteors per hour.  The best way to see these “falling stars”, as they’re often called, is to get away from city lights so the night sky is nice and dark.

Keep in mind that just because the peak of the meteor shower is tonight doesn’t mean you might not be able to see meteors over the course of the next several nights.

The Leonids aren’t the biggest of the meteor showers to take place.  Coming up around December 13 will be the Geminid Meteor Shower when there’s the possibility of seeing as many as 100 meteors per hour.

So good luck if you try to check out the meteor shower.  If you don’t…sleep well.

Ron Demers

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October offered Sioux City a little more rain…but not enough to change our drought conditions.  Here is the latest Drought Monitor that was released on Thursday.  It leaves Sioux City and western Siouxland in an exceptional drought, the worst category.

The last month that Sioux City had above average rainfall was way back in May.  Here is a look at the amount of rain that Sioux City has seen each month, along with the departure from normal in parenthesis, since May.

When you add up the numbers from June through October, the statistics are startling with a rainfall deficit during that time of 8.76″.

There is a chance of rain Sunday night, but most of us will only be looking at a tenth to a quarter inch of rain.

Ron Demers

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It was the first snow of the season for us in Siouxland although accumulations were confined to the western parts of the KTIV viewing area.

You can see the blanket of white below left in Bloomfield, NE.

But it was rain that more of us saw and some nice amounts at that.  Here’s a look at our weather watcher rain and where that leaves us as far as trying to catch up on our rainfall deficit in Sioux City.

It’s going to stay cooler than average for a few days but the only chance of precipitation in our 7-day forecast comes on Saturday night with a slight chance of some light rain or snow.

Ron Demers

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With all the nice afternoons we’ve enjoyed as of late, you might be surprised to find out that September 2012 gave us the coldest average lows on record.  Sioux City’s average lows during September were 44.6 degrees which was colder than 2003 when we had averaged 45.2 degrees.

Part of the reason we were so cold is at night is because of the ongoing drought.  With no moisture in the ground we don’t have as much moisture in the air which allows us to cool down more at night.  Dry air also warms up a lot which is why we came in with the 8th warmest September on record.

And speaking of the drought, it was a dry September as you well know.  In fact, it was the 8th driest September on record.

October has started with the same cool nights and warm afternoons that we’ve been having.  But changes will come on Thursday that will keep us cooler than average for several days to come.

Ron Demers

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As quiet as the weather is, it was the perfect day to get out of the KTIV studios.  I had the pleasure of going to Holy Cross School in Sioux City and visiting the 5th grade science class today.  It was less of a talk and more of a question and answer session which was perfect because these kids had GREAT questions.

A big thanks to the 5th graders.  Keep studying hard because I can tell you’re already very interested in this great world of weather.

Ron Demers

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This has to be one of the craziest forecasts I’ve put together yet while at KTIV.  Indications are that we’ll go from near-record lows Sunday morning, to possible record highs Tuesday!

Let’s start with Sunday.  High pressure will build in during the  morning, meaning clear skies and light winds.  This time of the year, that means cold temperatures. Here’s a look at the GFS computer model forecast for Sunday morning:

See that small “H” located on I-29 near Sioux Falls, SD?  That’s the high pressure that the models are picking up on come Sunday morning.

Now let’s fast forward to Tuesday afternoon.  A strong cold front will be moving across the area.  Right now, we’re forecast to be out ahead of it.  If the front moves too fast, Tuesday would be cooler, but all indications are that the front will get hung up.  With a breezy southwesterly wind, dry air, and a good deal of sunshine, we could easily see temperatures in the middle 90s on Tuesday.  The current record high is 96.  Right now I think we’ll tie it.

Tis the season for extremes.  Enjoy it while it lasts!

Ross

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A cold front moved through with some damaging winds Tuesday night, but it also brought some rain which most of us have been begging for as of late.  The amounts seemed to be heaviest in the Cherokee and Storm Lake areas where over an inch fell.  Here’s a look at our weather watcher rainfall totals.

Unfortunately, many of us missed out on the rain including the Sioux Gateway Airport with just a trace.  KTIV picked up .07″.

We’ll stand another chance of some thundershowers from late Thursday into Thursday night.

We could have a lingering shower Friday morning but then we’ll be clearing out.  It’s not looking like most of this rain will be very heavy so it certainly is not a drought-buster kind of situation.  This system cools us off even more with highs on Friday only expected to be in the low 70s.  It is looking like a gorgeous weekend so enjoy!!

Ron Demers

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