I don’t think it’s just me when I say that morale has been down tremendously over the last few months as relentless cold has gripped the Eastern half to two thirds of the nation. This weather pattern has absolutely been freakish, frustrating, and at times absurd. So what in the heck is going on? Earlier in the year the Climate Prediction Center was forecasting above average winter temperatures for the Upper Midwest and Southern Canada. They were also suggesting it would be wetter and colder than normal on the East Coast and into Florida, with wetter than normal weather going from Texas into California. Although they missed the mark for our area, I’d say the forecast was dead on in some aspects. After see a several year long drought, California has erased the drought in much of the state in just a matter of months, Florida has been ridiculously cold, and the East Coast has seen record breaking snowfall. Most of Canada (especially Vancouver) has seen milder than average temperatures (January especially). On a global scale (including land and ocean temps), December was the 10th warmest on record (records date back to the 1950′s and 1960′s), so that’s nothing super special, but important.

January

Here’s a map of several locations around the globe where red means above average and blue means colder than average:

You will find that the majority of the globe was warmer than climatology (average) , and some areas that have been colder than average too. January around the glove was the 4th warmest on record, which is telling and I think significant, though only one month. This is weather we are talking about, it is not always predictable and the interaction of El Nino and other patterns are not always the same year to year. But my point here is that our cold has been the result of a record breaking amount of snow in December, and a blocking pattern. We have not seen progressive changes like we normally do. Back in January was the one exception when for two weeks we had above average to above freezing temperatures, but outside of the snowpack in Central Nebraska it was in the 40′s, 50′s, and 60′s far enough west into the Cornhusker state. Had we not seen the 28″ of snow cover, we too would have seen some extremely warm weather. Beyond that period of warmth, we’ve seen a jammed pattern in February with a ridge on the west coast, and trough east of the Rockies. This is a blocking pattern that keeps warmer air from ever reaching the Midwest as it normally would occasionally in the winter.

Here’s the blocking pattern, with the ridge smaller than it has been in Western Canada:

 Instead, we get a north wind and nothing but non-stop cold coming down from Canada. That is why we have not even hit 40° in Sioux City since early December (Norfolk, O’Neill, Neligh did that in January many times). In Sioux City and NW Iowa we have been stuck in some of the coldest air that the country has been experiencing, and we have really felt it and will never forget it. That’s my take on this winter from the research I’ve done. The legacy of our deep snow cover will continue to haunt us I think through March and April unless the blocking pattern can completely disappear, which will take time. Next week it might take a small break and hopefully we can go above freezing! Here’s to hoping anyway.

Dave Winslow

Posted under Weather Blog

The challenge this winter is finding different ways to describe the cold and snow without consulting a dictionary or thesaurus, or without losing your mind! All kidding aside, there is some warming potential the 1st week of March. I don’t see anything super warm or anything (especially with this giant sheet of snow over the Midwest), but we will most likely finally get above freezing for a few to several days.

Snow cover on visible satellite:

The reason we are expecting a warming trend is that the jetstream winds will change. The upper level ridge that’s been keeping Vancouver and the Pacific coast of North America warm will break down a bit, and push into Central Canada.

Monday upper level flow from GFS model:

So far this month its’ barely moved east a bit, leaving us open to day after day episodes of cold. With the way next week is looking, we may go above freezing as soon as Wednesday, if not then by the end of the week. The million dollar question remains: when will the snow cover disappear? I’d bet April rather than March, but a lot can change in the next few weeks (change is good at this point).

Dave Winslow

Posted under Weather Blog

You think our winter has been bad? You bet, it’s been rough, the worst wind, cold, and snow in years. But some areas have had a lot more snow recently and over the winter. Dallas Texas saw a foot of snow from one system alone this month. Dulles Airport near Washington D.C. certainly takes the cake for bragging rights for snow. That’s just nuts…it’s worst than our three feet of snow in December.

The stats:

At least our snows lately haven’t been as big as January and December, and there aren’t any big ones in sight. That possible period of warming for March still looks within the realm of possiblities for the middle part of next week. As far as big March snows go, the verdict is of course still out on that one.

Dave Winslow

Posted under Weather Blog

Last week Ron shared a statistic with you about the number of consecutive days this winter that Sioux City has been below 40°.  I just wanted to get you a quick update on the stats, plus add in a little look forward.

As of Sunday (February 21), Sioux City has not reached 40° since December 1, 2009.  That means we’ve been below 40° for 82 days straight!  That still keeps us in third place if we look at the record books.

The most consecutive days below 40° that Sioux City has seen is 90, set during the 1977-78 winter.  That puts us only 5 days out of second place, and 8 days from a tie for first place. 

Looking ahead I’d say we have a very good chance of breaking the record.  My 7-day forecast doesn’t include any days near 40°, so that puts us at 89.  At least the first couple days of next week continue to look cool on the extended models, which easily pushes us above 90 days. 

Mike Zwier

Posted under Weather Blog

We’re just getting done with one snow when we have to start looking at the potential for the next one.

Today’s system was nothing too harsh.  We only saw .3″ here in Sioux City although Creighton, NE, reported 3 inches out there and numerous reports of 2 to 5 inches came in from southern Nebraska and Iowa.  This system is quickly moving east.

Sunday’s system is much larger.  This one could give portions of Kansas and Missouri 6 to 12 inches of snow.  As you can see from the map below, the snow is expected to reach up to us here in Siouxland as well. 

The southern sections of our viewing area will have the greatest potential of seeing heavier amounts of snow.  In fact, Harrison & Shelby counties are under a Winter Storm Watch that begins at 6 am Sunday and goes until Noon Monday.  At this point they could be looking at 3 to 5 inches.  We’re a bigger question mark up here in Sioux City.  We could get in on a 1 to 3 inch band but there’s still the potential of this stay farther south and not giving us that much.  Stay tuned over the weekend as the latest models hopefully make things clearer for us.

Ron Demers

Posted under Weather Blog

I promised I would give you guys a spot on our weather blog so here is your spot!

This is Mollie Stapelman’s 4th grade class at Harney Elementary in South Sioux City. You guys were excellent listeners and provided me with some very good questions about how snow forms, tornadoes form, and how to get severe weather information when the weather gets rough. Surprisingly, I didn’t get too many complaints about the amount of snow this winter. Guess it’s a kids world in a snowy winter! Thanks for having me.

Dave Winslow

Posted under Weather Blog

We’ve had snow on the ground since December 7th, at times up to 28″! That’s a long stretch. In some winters, it’s just a few weeks and then it melts away. In other more typical winters, it might be a month or two. But if this snow cover keeps going into March, it will be three consecutive months of warmth crippling snow cover. Some stats compared to other years:

As Ron mentioned, there is some potential for weather changes in March. I would not be surprised to see a more active pattern that includes some snow and also days of melting.

Dave Winslow

Posted under Weather Blog

We all know it’s been a winter with lots of snow.  In fact, we’re only 13.8 inches from breaking our seasonal snowfall record here in Sioux City.  But are you also aware of just how long it’s been cold.  The last time we hit a high above 40° was December 1st.  That means that as of today (Feb. 16) we’ve gone 77 straight days without getting above that 40° mark.  That puts us in 3rd place as you can see below.

There are some indications we’ll try to break out of this pattern in early March, but until then try not to get your hopes up too high.

Ron Demers

Posted under Weather Blog

We’ve endured two and a half months of pure winter weather (doesn’t it seem even longer?) and people are ready for a change. Will that happen? Boy, I wish I could say a switch will be flipped and all of the sudden it’s going to be a much milder pattern, but pattern recognition and persistence definitely says that’s a long way away. I have been looking at the long range computer models for weeks now trying to find a glimmer of mild weather or at least the beginning of some melting, but the models have consistently shut down this idea. Computer models have been wrong in the past, so it will be something to watch in the future. Here’s a jet level flow for right now:

Notice the cold NW jetstream flow

Next Sunday:

It’s the same cold NW flow regime that will favor a few episodes of light snow and a parade of Arctic airmasses. I am an eternal optimist but it’s been tough lately. How’s this? When it finally does warm and the snow melts away, it will be like heaven around here. That’s assuming flooding doesn’t get too out of hand. Have a good one and thanks for checking out our blog.

Dave Winslow

Posted under Weather Blog

It’s snowed a few times this week and snowed last weekend. At least we are missing out on the big snows that have been pounding Texas and just north of the Gulf Coast. They don’t know what to do with snow! We don’t have much room for any more though. About our next snow event…the snow should break out Saturday morning and continue off and on into Saturday night and Sunday. This system is an upper level wave of energing that’s been slowing dropping down through Manitoba Canada.  It will obviously bring more cold and a nasty wind on Sunday that could gust over 30 mph. Here’s a snowfall forecast. All models are pointing at the epicenter of the snowfall to be along the Interstate 29 corridor and into NW Iowa. 2-4″ is going to be the rule for these areas, though out west you might get by with an inch or so.

Dave Winslow

Posted under Weather Blog