This is probably good news for many…the SPC’s forecast for severe weather has been downgraded and pushed a little to the southwest. 

Today and tonight:

It looks like they’re pretty concerned about the moisture and instability potential.  These variables look a little too low for severe storms tonight in our area, so our storms should mostly be garden variety, though I still wouldn’t rule out an isolated strong storm with some small hail after midnight and through tomorrow morning. The Thursday afternoon severe weather risk is also a bit shaky and questionable now too as we’ll have a tough time seeing a whole lot of warming and sunshine. We’ll of course know more tomorrow so be sure to check back with us.

Dave Winslow

Posted under Uncategorized

So some spots had frost into Northeast Nebraska this morning, and in just a few days a powerful Pacific storm will emerge into the Rockies and then the Plains with some severe weather. I got a call from a farm insurance agent wondering what the hail probability would be on Thursday…if only I had a crystal ball! The details are a little sketchy at this point, but I see the possibility of severe storms Wednesday night into the western parts of the area especially (hail, gusty winds), and another round Thursday afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center has both Wednesday night and Thursday highlighting our area with severe potential.

Wednesday and Wed. night

Thursday and Thursday night

 My thoughts for the second round Thursday? It’s a litte tricky because we’ll probably wake up to clouds Thursday morning and dimishing showers and storms…but I will say that we may see some peeks of sun, and as this large upper level storm system moves in, the ingredients will be there for several modes of severe weather Thursday afternoon and evening. If we don’t get enough sun, then the severe weather threat may stay a little south of the area.

Dave Winslow

Posted under Uncategorized

A Frost Advisory will in effect later Monday night for much of central and western Siouxland including Sioux City.

Frost Advisory

It’s not looking like this is going to be a killing freeze by any means with the majority of areas seeing frost to be found in lower lying areas where cold air drains.  In Sioux City, I’m going for a low of 35° but some location could dip into the low 30s.  And as much as many of us like to push this kind of weather off, it is getting to be that time of year.  In fact, the average first frost in Sioux City is October 3rd with a more frost facts below:

And if we don’t see the frost tonight we’ll be off the hook for a while with some warming taking place over the next couple of days.  Another system does move in by Thursday with good thunderstorm possibilities and colder air moving in behind that.

Ron Demers

Posted under Uncategorized

What a coincidence, the last post on here was in reference to an end of the growing season, and this one hints at that a bit. Yes, there is frost potential tonight, metal fences that radiate their heat quickly, along with the shingles on your roof and the tops of the prairie grasses may have a bit of frost on them tomorrow morning. But I think this will be mainly confined to low lying areas where the cold air drains the most and winds settle. I see the wind staying above calm for a good part of the night for most of us, and that might keep most our temperatures in the mid 30s opposed to low 30s. Is this typical in late September? It sure is, we usually see our first frost (technically 32° or colder in this map) in late September and early October:

I am not planning on taking any plants in or covering up my remaining peppers and tomatoes, but if you live in an area where frost happens more than others, ya might want to take precautions.

Dave Winslow

Posted under Uncategorized

With the approach of our first typical frost time (early October), this may be my last blog post for the gardening section. May heat was enough to give my pepper plants an early start, and I think this is part of why there was such an early harvest.  But there are still a few peppers left, some still green, some ripening, but I can almost count the remaining peppers because there are so few left.

I am trying something for the first time this year; drying red, ripe, Anaheim peppers to make homemade Chili powder. All I did was slice up the peppers thinly, put them in a dehydrator, and grinded them in a coffee grinder (preferrably one that you don’t use for coffee, just peppers).

I dug up the last of my potatoes yesterday, and finally dug up my sweet potatoes with a lot of anxiety in doing so. Why anxious? I have never grown sweet potatoes before, and the ones I planted were from the grocery store (yeah, the kind you buy to eat, not plant). 

The small size of the potatoes is great evidence of our cool summer, but I was just thrilled that they actually grew! I would take sweet potatoes over regular potatoes anyday, so next year, I hope to have many more sweet potatoes than regular. How about an extended forecast just for gardeners? I’ll be updating the blog with a long range outlook for the month of October and your fall and early winter outlook soon, so check back!

Dave Winslow

Posted under Gardening

I promised a picture, and here it is! You can barely see Big Bird, our chasing vehicle in the back:

Weather talks are all part of our duties here at Storm Team Four, and I was happy to answer questions about flooding, tornadoes, and working as a TV meteorologist at KTIV. Thanks for all of the great questions! Email me at dwinslow@ktiv.com if you have any weather questions we couldn’t answer with the time we had.

Dave Winslow

Posted under Uncategorized

Some people hate to see this time of year come, others love the cooler weather and brighter leaves that it brings, but either way autumn did officially arrive at 4:18 this Tuesday afternoon.  So how do you put a specific time on the arrival of a season?  Well, at 4:18 the direct rays of the sun were hitting the equator at a 90° angle as is illustrated by the graphic below.

Now for the next 6 months it’ll be the Southern Hemisphere getting in on the more direct rays of the sun sending them into the spring and summer seasons while we here in the Northern Hemisphere (getting in on the less direct rays of the sun) will head toward the cold of winter.

One other interesting thing about both the fall and spring equinox is that this is when the entire world is seeing the same amount of day and night.  So get ready, while there will still be plenty of nice days ahead, we all know the overall direction the temperatures will be moving.

Ron Demers

Posted under Uncategorized

Our emotions have been mixed about this developing cut-off low, and I can’t say we’re completed convinced on its evolution.  But there is some good news, the good news being that we may actually have a couple of dry and nice days midweek before rain moves back in Friday/Saturday. How is this going to happen? The cut-off low may move west into the Rockies Wednesday and Thursday, but then kick out into the Plains again for Friday and Saturday.

Upper level flow for Monday morning:

Wednesday:

Friday:

I should caution that we are at the mercy of this system and our computer models this week, and the forecast confidence isn’t as high as it normally is. With some luck though we’ll be drying out by next Sunday and Monday with some nice fall weather possible.

Dave Winslow

Posted under Uncategorized

This week has ended up being absolutely fabulous as the big storm systems stayed north of us and south.  It still looks like a pretty profound weather pattern change will take place next week, but how profound is now in questions since our computer models have been showing some changes.  Before it looked like a big upper trough of low pressure and cold air was going to push in early in the week, but now there are hints of another cut-off low forming.  These cut off-lows are a gamble to forecast (as was the case for the one churning in the southern plains right now).  I see two possible scenarios at this point….one being the cut-off low forms and moves west of us as the GFS model is showing:

Tuesday 7 pm

Wednesday 7 pm

This will produce a cool-down, but not a major one if it happens and it might be dry by midweek. The other possible solution is that an upper low cuts off and stays on top of us with cool and wet weather for several days, and the yet another scenario is that an cut-off low doesn’t form, and we just cool dramatically with some nice fall weather.  Of course we’ll know with more certainty in the next few days, so check back.

Dave Winslow

Posted under Uncategorized

A prolonged dry stretch is just what the farmers want after some spots around Sioux City and into Northeast Nebraska picked up 2-6″ of rain last Friday. It’s a weird and wonderful pattern that was with us last week and will be again for this week.  An upper level ridge is keeping the jetstream a long way up into Canada and the cold air as well.

When does this pattern break down?  Many of our longer range models are showing the possibility of a shot of much cooler air either Monday or Tuesday. 

 Seeing that we’ve been so mild and nice lately, we’re overdue for a pattern change. My feeling is that if we do see a cold shot, it won’t be terribly long lived and I am hoping it will spare the prolonged growing season gardeners have been enjoying.  I am still picking green beans filled out by Friday’s heavy rain event! That’s rare in September.  It is worth mentioning that our typical end to the growing season is on average in October when frost usually threatens the Northern Plains.

Dave Winslow

Posted under Uncategorized