I’m not trying to sound like a broken record, but we did have broken records yet again today.  After a record 58 degrees yesterday, today we hit 68 in Sioux City breaking the old record of 61 set in 1956.  And we certainly weren’t the only location hitting record highs.

You don’t get this kind of warmth if you have snow cover, and we certainly don’t have that.  In fact, moisture in general has been hard to come by as of late.  Here are a few of the statistics showing how dry we’ve been as of late.

We still don’t have much of a chance of seeing any precipitation in our 7-day forecast.  Temperatures are still expected to stay well above average until the middle of next week when some colder air may finally move in.  So whether you like it or not, get out and enjoy this mild streak while we have it because there’s still plenty of time for winter to set in for Siouxland.

Ron Demers

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I’ve heard it all from “I hate snow” to “is it going to be a snowy Christmas, please say yes!” These are comments my students have made as well.

This map shows the highest probability of having a white Christmas (snow cover) being over Northern Minnesota and much of Canada where the probability is over 90%. I always consider Sioux City to be on the borderline of the snowbelt-the area of the U.S. that normally experiences prolonged period of snow cover. From my experience here it totally depends on the year and weather pattern. Some years we get snow but episodes of Pacific air sweep in from the west and melt away the snow. In other years when Arctic air seems to stay entrenched, the snow lasts for a solid couple of months before it melts. Whether you like snow or not, at this point there will be no opportunities for new snow through Wednesday of the coming week. I will say that a few models have been hinting at a few minor disturbances that could bring a shot of light snow by the end of the coming travel week and into Christmas weekend. The atmosphere will be cold enough to support snow by then, but right now the models are inconclusive. Of course we’ll be sure to let you snow lovers know if any decent chances pop up to save the chance of getting a festive, white Christmas.
Dave Winslow

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We’ve seen about 3″ of snow so far this winter and that was mainly from one system. It was 44° yesterday so snow is long gone except for a few ugly piles here and there. Is there any snow potential for Christmas? Of course there is some, the winter solstice is coming next week. But the weather pattern says otherwise as we warm into the 40s and 50s this weekend. The next big storm will probably stay to our south on Monday-Tuesday. It will probably get a bit warmer after this system by midweek. Now, Christmas weekend is beyond forecast confidence but some models have been hinting that there could be a chance of cooler weather that would support snow if we can get some precipitation. Bottom line-it’s too early to tell, but I would say the odds are against it at the moment if I had to bet the farm.
Some stats for you (Sioux City)
Snow depth in 2010 on Christmas Day 5″
depth in 2009 12″
depth in 2008 12″+
depth in 2007 2″
depth in 2006 0″ (NONE)

So it’s been 5 years since our last snowless Christmas. Stay tuned to News Four to track any snow potential for the upcoming travel week and weekend.
Meteorologist Dave Winslow

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I had the chance to talk to the 5th grade class at Mater Dei in Sioux City today and we had a great time.  As one of the teachers mentioned to me, the kids may have kept me there with questions all day and that’s a great sign!

Thanks 5th graders and keep studying hard!!

Ron Demers

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We know it’s been dry but here’s some of data to back that statement up.  I was wondering how long it has taken us to accumulate our last inch of rain.  Well, we’re now coming up on 3 1/2 months!

You can also see in the above graphic just how dry some of the individual months have been with Septmber being the 3rd driest September on record here in Sioux City.  Both October and November are the 9th driest on record.

Below is a look at our departures from normal where our yearly rain is now below average by 3.5″.

There’s still not large amounts of moisture in our forecast although a system could provide us some light snow chances by Saturday.  At this point, the heaviest snow is expected to stay south of Siouxland but it will be close enough that a shift could change all that so it’ll be worth watching.

Ron Demers

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With this being one of the busiest travel days of the year, I figured a lot of people may not get to see our broadcast and may be doing some web surfing instead.  Whatever the case, I thought I’d give you a forecast on my blog just so you have the latest of what’s going on heading into our holiday.

Here are the weather headlines that I’m talking about…

That breeze that blows in from the south on Thanksgiving will give us the chance of getting into the low 60s for highs.  Friday will be just a bit cooler but still a decent day.  Then a cold front comes in Friday night that will give us a slight chance of a rain shower along with windy conditions that will continue right into Saturday as well bringing in much cooler weather with highs around 40° for the weekend.

For the fun of it, here’s a look at some of the extremes that we have seen here in Sioux City on past Thanksgiving Day.

I hope everyone has a great and very safe Thanksgiving!

Ron Demers

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Not much has changed in regards to our weekend system that could produce some snow across the Dakotas and Minnesota.  It does still look like the accumulating snow will mostly stay north of the KTIV viewing area.  Some of the heavier amounts could take place in central South Dakota where a little more than 6 inches could end up falling.

In the graphic below you can see the purple counties that are in a Winter Storm Warning across much of South Dakota with the blue counties showing area that are in a Winter Weather Advisory for 2 to 5 inches of snow.

So Siouxland will be looking at the chance of a light rain and snow combination, but nothing too heavy.  The precipitation should be moving to the east by Saturday evening leaving us with a cold Sunday with highs in the 30s.  But we will see a nice warming trend still for next week.

If you’re traveling north, be careful.  Otherwise, have a great weekend!

Ron Demers

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There’s a chance of a rain and snow combination creeping into Siouxland for the day on Saturday, but at this point it’s looking like the heaviest of accumulations are going to be staying farther to the  north.  In fact, a Winter Storm Watch is in effect for much of South Dakota where they could see a 4 to 8 inch snowfall.

Again, this South Dakota snow will mostly happen from Friday night into Saturday so if you have travel plans up that way during this time, you may want to be prepared to alter your travel.

We could see some light accumulations as far south as northern Siouxland but most of those should stay under an inch.  You can see that Sioux City is located at the bottom of the image below and doesn’t have any accumulation in the forecast at this point.

On the back side of this system it’s going to get cold with highs on Sunday only going into the 30s!  But don’t worry, if you’re a fan of the milder weather you’re going to like next week’s forecast as we warm it back up into Thanksgiving Day.

Ron Demers

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Thanks for everyone that tuned in this morning and answered my weather poll! Most of you nailed the question!  The term “Blue Norther” may be a term that you hear rarely…if ever at all. Blue Norther (a rapidly moving cold front that causes temperatures to drop quickly and will often bring precipitation followed by blue skies and very cold temperatures) actually denoted a weather phenomenon common to large areas of the world’s temperate zones. Off we go back in history a bit, to one area of the United States that experienced a Blue Norther and it went down in the history books. On November 11, 1911 a powerful cold front moved in the Great Plains and many cities broke record highs early in the afternoon and by nightfall, cities were dealing with single digit numbers breaking record lows. The main cause of such a dramatic cold snap was caused by a storm system that separated warm humid air from the frigid arctic air. Although, dramatic cold snaps are most common in November, they are also known to occur in the late winter and early spring months. On that November day, back one hundred years ago many cities experienced what is called the “Great Blue Norther.”

Some examples:

Kansas City, Missouri: The city reached a high of 76° by late morning and after the front moved through temperatures drastically dropped by midnight to 11°. That is a 65° difference in 14 hours.

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma: The city hit a record high of 83° and ended with a low of 17°. This was a 66° difference and this record still holds to this day.

The record high and low were both broken the same day in Springfield, Missouri. The city hit a high of 80° and two hours later was at 40°. By midnight that evening the temperature dropped to a bone chilling 13°. This was also a record breaker of 67° difference in 10 hours.

Just a little weather trivia for everyone. That always goes to show, don’t ever pack  you off season clothes away because you never know what Mother Nature has in mind!

Riley

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While it was looking like quite a few of us in Siouxland could get in on a rain and snow combination Tuesday night, it’s turning out that only southern and eastern Siouxland will see much of anything.  In fact, all Winter Weather Advisories that are in effect are east of the KTIV viewing area into central and eastern Iowa:

While there are no advisories in Siouxland, we could see some minor snow accumulations in the southeastern parts of the area including placese like Crawford, Carroll, and Calhoun counties.  Here’s the 3 am snapshot of when snow could still be coming down.

By Wednesday afternoon we’ll be back to bright sunshine in the area but temperatures will stay below average with winds possibly gusting close to 30 miles per hour.  A warming trend will occur by the weekend.

Ron Demers

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